Nothing Happens In A Vacuum
In a few short years, one virtually unknown person potentially can have a profound effect on our national politics — and on our way of life.
We’ve all probably heard of the “butterfly effect” — the component of chaos theory that theorizes that a butterfly flapping its wings in one part of the world can cause drastic changes in weather patterns many thousands of miles away. I’ll let you be the judge as to whether that’s literally true or merely metaphorical. But the butterfly effect seems to have become widely accepted and examples of it pop up regularly in our public discourse.
Consider the story of Mark Robinson, a regular Joe — a married guy, an employee of a North Carolina furniture manufacturer, evangelical Christian, and occasional preacher. By some reports, Robinson apparently was also not only a porn aficionado but also someone who liked to boast about his sexual conquests in great detail.
(I’ll spare you those details; there’s plenty of salacious info available via a Google search, if you’re so inclined.)
Let’s go back a few years. In 2018, Mark Robinson became “internet famous” because of a pro-gun speech he made:
This rant attracted a sufficient following among the people of North Carolina to catapult him into a life of politics. In particular, he began to attract attention in GOP circles because he was the elusive bigfoot in conservative politics: a Black Republican.
Turn a few calendar pages and, by 2020, he found himself running for Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina. During his term as Lieutenant Governor, he has expressed anti-Semitic views. He has referred to abortion as murder, and he has opposed abortion, no matter the circumstances, famously (or infamously) stating “Once you make a baby, it's not your body anymore — it’s y'all's body.” But his position on abortion seems to vacillate, based on political convenience. From Wikipedia:
In an August 2024 political advertisement, Robinson admitted his past involvement in an abortion, and took a different position on abortion, asserting: "I stand by our current law, and it provides common-sense exceptions for the life of the mother, incest and rape." The state law on abortion at the time banned abortion after 12 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions. In that advertisement, Robinson did not mention his past support for stricter abortion restrictions, and did not commit to rejecting stricter abortion legislations passed by Republicans.
He has proclaimed himself to be a “Black nazi.” He has defended slavery. He has said that things were better before the Civil Rights movement.
There’s so much more — about his homophobia, his transphobia, his holocaust denialism, his statement from the pulpit that “some folks need killin’.”
As extreme as those statements and beliefs are, those are the very things that prompted Donald Trump to endorse Robinson in his 2024 bid as the Republican candidate in the North Carolina Governor’s race. They became running buddies.
All of the above is merely preface to the real reason for this post — the interconnectedness of seemingly unrelated events and people that can have a profound effect on our politics and on every citizen of the nation.
Fast forward to this week.
Until this week, all of Robinson’s odious views were apparently just fine with the GOP, both nationally and in North Carolina. Oh, there was some tongue-clucking and some hand wringing here and there. But that was primarily because those clucking their tongues were more concerned that Robinson’s views would hurt them politically, not because those views were extreme or amoral.
Here’s where it gets interesting. This week, salacious details of Robinson’s sexual escapades and of his frequenting porn sites — and of his hypocrisy — are coming into sharp focus. (Again, Google it, if you dare .) Suddenly, people in the GOP are panicking. The particular details of his sexual “tastes” are apparently the straw that is breaking the Republican camel’s back.
Some in the Trump campaign have been worrying for weeks that Trump’s association with Robinson may be an albatross around his neck in North Carolina, a state that Trump badly needs to win. Robinson has defiantly vowed to stay in the race, despite mounting pressure for him to step down. I don’t know if he’s used the old “witch hunt” talking point, but that’s the gist of his denials. Will Robinson’s remaining on the ballot discourage Republican voters from showing up at the polls? Will GOP voters vote against Robinson but for Trump? All of that remains to be seen. But Trump and his campaign seem to be inching away from Robinson.
Trump doesn’t have very many paths to Electoral College victory, so North Carolina becomes pretty pivotal in national politics. Even before this week’s revelations, many have been calling North Carolina a swing state, and those 16 Electoral College votes could make a significant difference for either presidential candidate.
Additionally, it’s not like Robinson’s presence on the ticket hasn’t already had a profound effect on national politics. Gov. Roy Cooper, the current Democratic governor of North Carolina with Robinson as his Lieutenant Governor, withdrew his name from consideration as Kamala Harris’ running mate. He did so because he feared that Robinson would become governor, and Cooper believed he had a better chance of defeating Robinson than any other potential Democratic candidate in North Carolina.
Mark Robinson. Just an average Joe.
Here’s the Hollywood pitch: A guy makes a speech, attracts the attention of right wingers, becomes a candidate as a right wing darling in a purple state. The guy gets into office, garners national attention for his odious views, becomes chummy with the felon former president who’s running for president again to keep himself out of prison. His bid to become governor will be on the same ballot as the felon’s re-election bid. The guy’s place on his state’s gubernatorial ballot affects the Democratic presidential candidate’s choice of a running mate. Uncomfortable details of the guy’s sex life are exposed and suddenly his candidacy and that state have the potential of changing the outcome of a presidential election.
That’s one hell of a butterfly.