Election "Known Unknowns"
The 2024 election is unprecedented in many ways, making it harder to predict outcomes. But we can try to understand how much we don't know.
At a 2002 news briefing, George W. Bush’s Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, jabbered his way through a matrix of possible realities around weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) that were supposedly possessed by Iraq.
Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.
— Donald Rumsfeld, February 12, 2002
While some accused him of using this apparent word salad to obfuscate the increasing suspicion that Iraq did not, in fact, possess the WMDs that Bush and Cheney told us about, buried within the clunky verbiage of the “Rumsfeld matrix” was a set of tools for analyzing situations and events.
We know there are a number of things we don’t know about the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. I haven’t done a full Rumsfeldian analysis but I’ve tried to identify and articulate some of the “known unknowns” around the polls, predictions, and patterns of voting.
Here’s my attempt. The “known unknowns” are in italics.
Down-Ticket vs. Top of the Ticket. How many Republican voters will vote for down-ticket Republican candidates but will either vote for Harris or not vote for any Presidential candidate? There’s certain number of voters who vote consistently for Republicans but who can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump this time around. Should Harris win, the answer to this question will have a profound effect on her ability to govern, particularly if the Republicans have control of one or both houses of Congress.
Newly Registered Voters. We know that there have been huge numbers of new voter registrations in the last couple of months. There were something like 300,000 new registrations in the days following Biden’s announcement that he would not run and his endorsement of Kamala Harris. There was another surge in registrations during and after the Democratic National Convention. How many of those newly registered voters will actually vote in this election? What’s the breakdown of those voters between Trump supporters and Harris supporters?
Voter Enthusiasm vs. Actual Voter Turnout. There’s no denying that, when Kamala Harris became the presidential nominee for the Democrats, there was an unprecedented surge in enthusiasm. The excitement was palpable. Does that enthusiasm represent an increase in turnout of Democratic voters? Or is it just external evidence of Democratic voters who already would have voted for Harris?
Right Track/Wrong Track Polling. We know that, when polled, the majority of voters consistently say that the country is on the wrong track. What’s virtually impossible to discern from this fairly vague polling question is who is to blame for being on the wrong track? That’s not identified in the polling. Do voters blame the party in power and hold them responsible at the ballot box? Or do they blame obstruction by the party that’s not in power for their dissatisfaction? Do they blame the rhetoric of one side or other, separate from any legislation that is or is not being passed? All of those variables may be present in recent polling.
That said, in the three months since Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate, right track/wrong track polling has revealed an “optimism bump” of about 10 points among U.S. registered voters, the beginning of which aligns precisely with the start of Harris’ candidacy. Can we attribute that notable change in polling to Harris’ nomination? Or are other factors at play?
Dark Money. Ever since the Citizens United v. FEC SCOTUS decision, we’ve known that superPACS have played an outsized role in U.S. elections. We also know that there are (and have been) money laundering schemes at work to disguise foreign contributions to U.S. elections. Additionally, interference with U.S. elections on social media isn’t new, but it’s certainly more prevalent than in the last two elections, so much so that DOJ is taking a proactive approach. Will the amount of money coming from Russia or other malign actors have a significant impact on election results?
Outdated Polling Methods. Is traditional polling no longer effective because the samples don’t take into account how many people won’t answer a call from an unidentified number? Are young people (more likely to be Democrats) underrepresented in polling because they are less likely to answer and respond to polling than older voters?
October Surprises. Are there any so-called October surprises lurking in the background, waiting to be sprung on voters at the last minute? In most presidential election years, there are at least some. Will October surprises, if they occur, benefit Trump or Harris?
“Stealth” Harris Voters. There is anecdotal evidence of spouses of Trump supporters who tell their friends and family one thing but who intend to vote another way. The same can be said of certain lifelong Republican voters (along with certain Republican politicians) who publicly still support Trump out of fear for their careers or their safety. Do these “stealth” voters represent a significant enough demographic to affect the end result, either at the state level or nationally?
Have I missed anything? If I did, please let me know in the comments.