Victory, Violence and Variables
At this point in the Presidential campaign, few are foolish enough to think that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are on a guaranteed glide path to victory on November 5. There have been some extremely encouraging signs, and polls certainly seem to be trending in the Democrats favor. But the whiplash that we all felt from Harris suddenly being at the top of the ticket should be a reminder just how quickly political fortunes can change.
With the Harris-Walz ticket performing so strongly and the Trump-Vance ticket fumbling and stumbling to try to adapt to the new political landscape, Democratic victory in the Presidential race is within reach. Solely for the purposes of discussion, let’s assume that the Democrats prevail on November 5. What happens next?
Donald Trump has already resurrected a couple of his greatest hits from previous campaigns in an attempt to subvert the will of the electorate. The tactic that netted him the most visible results was his inflammatory statements that riled up his overzealous followers, culminating in the insurrection attempt on Jan. 6, 2021. The other somewhat less visible but no less seditious tactic was his meddling in the electoral process at the state level, both in blatantly coercing election officials to change the vote count in their state and in coordinating with various states to enlist “alternate electors” to obstruct the rightful certification of the 2020 Presidential election.
Both of those schemes – stochastic terrorism and election interference – would not have been possible without a carefully developed group of devoted supporters who took every word out of Trump’s mouth as gospel, despite mountains of evidence of his chronic and habitual lying. Those tactics were coupled with a spineless GOP whose unbridled lust for power at any price gave Trump the permission structure for riling up the MAGA throngs.
But it’s now 2024. Americans witnessed in real time that 2020 violent attempt at overturning the legitimate results of a Presidential election. They’ve been subjected, sometimes directly, to the horrific consequences of a Supreme Court stacked with right wing extremists. The severe downsides of Trumpism are all too evident, even to those who may not have been paying close attention.
How Compliant Are the Cultists?
With the passage of time and the change in the zeitgeist, it’s worth looking at whether those two tactics – stochastic terrorism and election interference – will gain traction in this election cycle. I’m not about to place odds on whether (or how) either of these time-tested Trump cons will transpire, but I’ve been giving some thought as to where each of these stand in 2024.
Stochastic Terrorism
As far back as March of this year (and probably farther), Trump has already been planting the seeds for a repeat of the Jan. 6 insurrection. Here he is, suggesting that there will be a bloodbath if he doesn’t win:
He’s also been feigning innocence about stoking the flames – another of his go-to moves. But how many of his most ardent followers cultists are actually still willing to do his bidding? Perhaps not as many as he may wish.
Some variables that favor the Democrats:
There have been somewhere in the vicinity of 1,500 Jan. 6 insurrectionists being arrested and convicted, with many of them serving prison time. That fact alone may be enough of an object lesson to be a deterrent.
If violence similar to J6 does occur, the cultists won’t have a willing partner in the White House. The Democrats are much more likely to nip any violence in the bud.
Additionally, better pre-emptive security measures make it possible to prevent violence from happening and to ensure the certification of the election results.
On the other side of the variable equation:
Guns have proliferated, and cultists openly boast about their stockpiles of weapons.
There’s a metastasized right-wing media landscape, making it possible to spread lies and conspiracy theories more effectively through multiple channels, both online and on air.
There are still precious few Republicans in office who do anything to dissuade extremists from acting violently.
Election Interference
In 2024, Trump and his cronies may not follow the exact playbook they used in 2020, but there definitely will be echoes of that playbook.
Some of the scams that are already underway or completed:
Gerrymandering specifically intended to marginalize voters of color
Installing Trump loyalists on local election boards who will attempt to obstruct certification of local elections
“Poll monitoring” by armed MAGA cultists intended solely to intimidate voters
Purging of voter rolls targeting likely Democratic voters
There are some hopeful signs, though:
As recently as this week, Colorado county clerk Tina Peters in Mesa County was found guilty on seven counts related to tampering with 2020 election results.
Organizers of the fake electors plot in 2020 also have been facing serious legal consequences in various jurisdictions and the fake electors themselves are also dealing with legal consequences for their participation. In the face of these consequences, it’s likely that there will be fewer blissfully ignorant people willing to participate in Trump’s election crimes during this election cycle.
There are still many unknowns about this election, and the variables I’ve identified are based on the “known knowns.” As with any campaign, there’s a lot that we don’t know. But the best way for Democrats to offset all of the negative stuff — known and unknown — is to vote in numbers that make the results of the election undeniable.